Abstract
In order to approach the medium-range prediction of great earthquakes with Ms≥6, the author investigated the relation between drought and earthquakes and believed that the drought-earthquake relation is an effective method for the medinm-range prediction of great earthquakes. When the author studied the meteorological effects on the earthquake preparation, he found that the epiecntral regions of great earthquakes with M≥6 are usually dry for one to three and a half years before earthquakes. The draught area changes with the earthquake magnitude proportionally. If an earthquake occurs in the 3rd year of drought, its magnitude is 0.5 higher than that in the 1st year of the drought. According to the above-mentioned facts, the author puts forth the medium-range prediction method and principle of great earthquakes by the drought-earthquake relation: (ⅰ) the magnitude is defined in accordnce with the area of the drought regious; (ⅱ) the possible risk area is defined on the basis of the location of the drought regions; (ⅲ) in the possible time prediction, it is generally predicted in 1—2 years after the drought and if it is predicted in the 3rd year, the magnitude should be 0.5 hihger.
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