Drought risk assessment in China: Evaluation framework and influencing factors

Abstract

Global warming and rapid economic development have led to increased levels of disaster risk in China. Previous attempts at assessing drought risk were highly subjective in terms of assessment methods and selection of the assessment indicators and which resulted in appreciable uncertainty in the results of these risk assessments. Based on the assumption that areas with historically high drought losses are more likely to suffer future high drought losses, we develop a new drought risk assessment model that includes historical drought loss data. With this model, we map the regional differentiation of Chinese drought risk. Regions with high (extreme high) drought risk account for 4.3% of China's area. Five significant high-risk areas have been identified: Northeast China, North China, the east part of Northwest China, the east part of Southwest China and a small part in the west of Northwest China. Areas with high and extreme high drought risk are dominant in the Heilongjiang Province, accounting for 32% of the total area, followed by the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, with 26% of total area. The contribution of each influencing factor has been quantified, which indicates that high-exposure and high-vulnerability account for the high-risk of drought. We recommend that measures like strengthening the protection of cultivated land and reducing dependence on the primary industry should be taken to mitigate to drought-induced losses.