Drone motion prediction from flight data: a nonlinear time series approach

Abstract

In this paper, we explore the application of data-driven predictive systems in enhancing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) control capabilities. We introduce a new model for predicting the motion of individual drones by utilizing fundamental flight control data. The model aims to improve the autonomy of individual drones and circumvent the complexity of traditional flight control systems, thus eliminating intricate nested controls. The proposed model lays the foundation for studying collective behaviours within a cluster of drones, thereby advancing the research into swarm behaviour exhibited by drones. The research findings demonstrate the potential of data-driven methods in the construction of UAV control systems. In particular, we here show a comparison of the prediction performances between two neural network architectures using real drone flight data involved in various kinds of motions. We explore the utility of using long short term memory (LSTM) and nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) family of nonlinear time series models in developing a virtual drone model using real experimental data.