Driving forces of the agricultural land footprint of China's food supply

Abstract

Dietary changes are closely intertwined with land use changes, and understanding the relative importance of different food items and their driving forces is crucial. Here, we analyzed the changes in China's global cropland footprint for food and feed consumption from 1987 to 2013 and explored the driving forces behind these changes for each food item. China's per capita protein consumption increased by 57%. The global cropland footprint of China's food and feed consumption expanded by 40% during this period. Decomposition analysis demonstrated that population growth was the primary driver of the increased total cropland footprint until 1993, with the subsequent rise in per capita protein consumption becoming the driving force. Thereafter, the increased efficiency of cropland use offset 49% of the total cropland expansion primarily due to improved management technologies. Among the food items analyzed, pork, eggs, and vegetables were identified as the main contributors to the increased total cropland footprint, primarily driven by changes in dietary patterns and their increased inclusion in the human diet. In conclusion, changing human diet towards less monogastric livestock products and improving productivity of concentrate feed crops are essential for mitigating domestic land pressure and ecological degradation in exporting countries.