Driving forces of carbon dioxide emissions in China’s cities: An empirical analysis based on the geodetector method

Abstract

Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is an important strategy used to curb global warming. Notably, urban areas contribute to the majority of global CO2 emissions. The exploration of spatial differences and their impacts on CO2 emissions in cities serves an essential role in formulating regional carbon emission reduction strategies. Therefore, combining spatial autocorrelation analysis with a geographical detector model could help understanding how CO2 emissions are spatially distributed in cities and the mechanisms responsible for their distribution. By analyzing China’s prefecture-level cities as spatial unit, the spatial distribution features of CO2 emissions were investigated, and their main drivers in 2005 and 2012 were identified. The results indicates that CO2 emissions increased by 60.35% from 2005 to 2012. The higher CO2 emissions in cities were mainly located in the east and north regions of China. CO2 emissions had a significant positive spatial autocorrelation and an obvious phenomenon of stratification appeared in 2005 and 2012. The degree of spatial agglomeration among cities with low and high CO2 emissions both increased. Gross domestic product (GDP), research and development (R&D), foreign direct investment (FDI), and urban built-up area were major factors affecting CO2 emissions. Increased population density was associated with decreased CO2 emissions, while the effect of climate types increased from 2005 to 2012. The interactions of GDP with share_ industry (the share of labour in the secondary industry), population density, and urbanization had a stronger influence on CO2 emissions in 2005, while the interactions of GDP with FDI, climate types, and share_ industry were stronger in 2012. However, the influence of share_ industry and climate types on CO2 emissions were only important when certain economic levels were met. The findings provide a reference for decision-makers to develop more accurate and detailed policies to reduce CO2 emissions in Chinese cities.