Driving-forces for Greenland Offshore Groundfish Assemblages: Interplay of Climate, Ocean Productivity and Fisheries

Abstract

Principal component analysis of German survey data from 1981 to 2006 yielded four main trend components accounting for 60% of variance of the demersal fish assemblage on the Greenland shelf. The leading principal component (prin1) accounted for 22.5% of total variance of abundance and was positively correlated with deep-sea and golden redfish >17 cm (Sebastes mentella and S. marinus, respectively). Prin2 accounted for 16.7% of total variance of abundance and was correlated to juvenile redfish <17 cm. Prin3 and prin4 accounted for 12.9% and 7.5% of total variance, respectively. American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides) was attributed to prin3. Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) was almost equally assigned to prin3 and prin4. Prin1 and prin4 were significantly correlated with air temperature anomalies from Nuuk (p <0.01), representing the climate effect on the demersal assemblage. Prin2 and prin3 were significantly correlated with the July–August phytoplankton colour index for East Greenland representing ocean productivity and fishing mortality from cod VPA analysis, the latter indicating fishing pressure effects on the ecosystem. About 30% of total variance can be explained by climate. For East Greenland, strong bottom-up forcing (climate, productivity) and effects of fisheries were identified, whereas for West Greenland both bottom-up (climate) and top-down forcing (community interactions) were effective. With respect to Atlantic cod, fisheries in the case of prin3 and climate in the case of prin4 were equally important to explain long-term dynamics.