Drivers of renewable energy penetration and its role in power sector's deep decarbonization towards carbon peak

Abstract

The power sector is a linchpin of global carbon mitigation goal, and renewables are increasingly the preferred source of new electricity generation globally. It is necessary to uncover the driving mechanism of renewable energy penetration and its impact on deep decarbonization of the power sector. To this end, this research utilizes the production-theoretical decomposition analysis to attribute the change in renewable electricity generation to nine drivers. Then, a system dynamics model is established to track the trajectory of carbon emissions in the power sector under multiple scenario settings of renewable energy penetration. Additionally, cross-country heterogeneity analysis is conducted between China, the USA, the UK, and Germany. The results indicate that: (1) The electricity consumption scale plays a decisive role in driving China's renewable electricity generation during 1995–2018, while electricity productivity and output productivity are the major negative contributors. (2) In the UK, the USA, and Germany, electricity productivity and output productivity act as the main promoters of renewable electricity generation. (3) The decline in China's two productivity effects is primarily attributed to the drop of technical efficiency. However, technology progress in these developed countries contributes to increasing the two productivity indexes. (4) The IRENA roadmap scenario (40%) is not enough to peak carbon emissions in China's power sector before 2030, while 46.3% of renewables in electricity generation is sufficient to achieve this goal. This research provides an insightful roadmap for facilitating renewable energy transition and decarbonizing the power sector.