Driving forces of provincial-level CO2 emissions in China’s power sector based on LMDI method

Abstract

As the major energy consumer and carbon emitter, the power sector accounts for 40% of total carbon emissions in China in 2011. Understanding provincial-level driving mechanisms of CO2 emissions in power sector is vital for achieving China’s national carbon emissions reduction targets in 2030. To understand the critical provinces and driving forces of CO2 emissions in power sector, this paper firstly derives seven different driving factors based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition model. The provincial-level CO2 emissions in thermal power sectors are calculated from 2004 to 2014. Then, we analyze the CO2 emissions growth ratio of each province, provincial-level change rate of contribution and positive or negative contributions of the emission dynamics for each driving force. The main results show that the power sector of Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu contribute a lot to national CO2 emissions. The change of CO2 emissions of power sector is bigger in developing provinces compared to that in developed provinces. Based on provincial the CO2 emissions changes and total amounts, more carbon emission reduction policy should be implanted in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Anhui, Jiangsu and Ningxia. In addition, the economic scale, industrial intensity and energy intensity are the critical driving forces for total carbon emission. By investigating the critical driving forces and their contributions in critical provinces, this paper aims to provide theoretical foundations for decarbonizing power sector.