Downscaling research of spatial distribution of incidence of hand foot and mouth disease based on area-to-area Poisson Kriging method

Abstract

Objective: To understand the spatial distribution of incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) at scale of township and provide evidence for the better prevention and control of HFMD and allocation of medical resources. Methods: The incidence data of HFMD in 108 counties (district) in Shandong province in 2010 were collected. Downscaling interpolation was conducted by using area-to-area Poisson Kriging method. The interpolation results were visualized by using geographic information system (GIS). The county (district) incidence was interpolated into township incidence to get the distribution of spatial distribution of incidence of township. Results: In the downscaling interpolation, the range of the fitting semi-variance equation was 20.38 km. Within the range, the incidence had correlation with each other. The fitting function of scatter diagram of estimated and actual incidence of HFMD at country level was y=1.053 1x, R(2)=0.99. The incidences at different scale were consistent. Conclusions: The incidence of HFMD had spatial autocorrelation within 20.38 km. When HFMD occurs in one place, it is necessary to strengthen the surveillance and allocation of medical resource in the surrounding area within 20.38 km. Area to area Poisson Kriging method based downscaling research can be used in spatial visualization of HFMD incidence.