Downscaling of the global HadGEM2-ES results to model the future and present-day ocean conditions of the southeastern Brazilian continental shelf

Abstract

Changes in the regional hydrodynamics of the region of the South Atlantic near the east coast of Brazil were evaluated from the beginning to the end of the century. The analysis was based on the anomalies from two downscaling experiments using the HadGEM2-ES outputs for the historical and RCP4.5 runs from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5. The anomalies between the experiments were collected in a system of two nested grids, with $$1/3^\circ$$ and $$1/12^\circ$$ horizontal resolutions. A northward displacement of the Brazil Current (BC), a southward BC transport intensification, and a 1.44 $$^\circ$$ C increase of the mean values of sea surface temperatures were observed. The sea level rise (SLR) was projected up until 2100 across the study area, and the spatial variations were shown to have an average on SLR rate of 7.30 mm year $$^{-1}$$ for those regions close to the coast. These results highlight the importance of studying climate change and applying methods to enable the evaluation of its effects on coastal zones, especially for regions with few existing studies, such as the Brazilian continental shelf area.