Dose and risk estimation of Cs-137 and I-131 released from a hypothetical accident in Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant

Abstract

The construction of Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) was launched in 2018 and the plant is expected to be operative by the year 2023. Being situated in the Mediterranean coastline, Akkuyu NPP will be the first nuclear power generation facility in Turkey. The plant will have four Russian VVER-1200 type pressurized water reactors with a total installed capacity of 4800 MW. In this study, atmospheric dispersion and ground level deposition of Cs-137 and I-131 released from a possible accident in Akkuyu NPP was estimated using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model, FLEXPART, for different time periods representing relatively extreme meteorological conditions for Mersin. The source term used in simulations was assumed the same with that of the Chernobyl NPP accident that occurred in 1986. In addition, cumulative dose and risk values were calculated from FLEXPART output datasets considering potential exposure pathways such as inhalation, ground-shine exposure and cloud-shine exposure. The results were further analyzed with python codes and dose and risk maps were created for local and regional scales. According to results of the study, it was found that the vicinity of Mersin and Central Anatolia were simulated to be the most significantly affected areas from the accident under both scenario conditions. The northern and western parts and all coastlines of Turkey were simulated to be more contaminated in the simulations conducted under December 2009 conditions, whereas southern and western parts of Turkey and some parts of Middle East countries like Syria, Iraq and Lebanon were simulated to be comparatively more contaminated under August 2010 conditions. The results indicated that radioactivity levels exceeding 100 kBq/m2 were observed near the accident site under both scenario conditions. Values exceeding 10 kBq/m2 level were simulated in western Turkey in the first scenario whereas similar values were found in eastern Turkey in the second scenario. Furthermore, the results indicated 7-day thyroid dose values ranging between 0.10 mSv and 10.0 mSv in western and eastern parts of Mediterranean region for the first and the second scenario, respectively. Similarly, 1-year effective dose of only Cs-137 ranged between 0.1 mSv and 1.0 mSv around Akkuyu NPP site in both scenarios. The results revealed that meteorological conditions were among the most important parameter for the fate and transport of radioactivity originating from such a catastrophic event.