Dominant inflation of the Arctic Ocean’s Beaufort Gyre in a warming climate

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The Arctic Ocean’s Beaufort Gyre, the largest Arctic freshwater reservoir, plays a crucial role for climate and marine ecosystems. Understanding how it changes in a warming climate is therefore essential. Here, using high-resolution simulations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 data, we find that the Beaufort Gyre will increasingly accumulate freshwater, elevate sea level, and spin up its circulation as the climate warms. These changes, collectively referred to as inflation, are more pronounced in the Beaufort Gyre region than in other Arctic areas, amplifying the spatial asymmetry of the Arctic Ocean. The inflation is driven by increased surface freshwater fluxes and intensified surface stress from wind strengthening and sea ice decline. Current climate models tend to underestimate this inflation, which could be alleviated by high-resolution ocean models and improved atmospheric circulation simulations. The inflation of the Beaufort Gyre underscores its growing importance in a warming climate.