Abstract
This study is aimed to examine the domestic tractor market share with time series analysis to forecast the future probabilities with the help of the models which are created according to the Box-Jenkins method. The study was planned for year 2010, based on 5 different domestic tractor brands which are separately estimated for the domestic tractor market and included the total tractor numbers. It has been observed that the projected value of tractor companies whose market shares are estimated by time series analysis and the total tractor number are very close to their actual values.
Highlights
Predicting the future is an indispensable element of a socio-economic development
The total number of tractors estimated by time series analysis was obtained and these estimation values were compared with the actual total tractor numbers
For the period 2005-2009, the% deviation values obtained between the actual values and the estimated values; it is calculated as 18% for brand A, 24% for brand B, 24% for brand C, 17% for brand D and 23% for brand E
Summary
Predicting the future is an indispensable element of a socio-economic development. It is possible for private or public organizations to maintain or improve their future status only if they are able to predict events and find appropriate solutions with good planning. One of the methods used to predict the future is the time series. Time series analysis is used to create a forecast model for the future periods using the previous period data of the variable to be predicted. Analysis of the time series of the model variable related to the model development is based on determining the main trend and its characteristics. It is used in the estimation phase considering that the model, whose accuracy is accepted under various constraints, will show the same tendency and similar characteristics in the future periods. Predicting the future is an indispensable element of a socio-economic development.
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