Abstract
In a pandemic, the economy must adapt to new conditions in order to minimize the risks that arise. One of the areas of the economy that is most affected by the pandemic is travel and tourism (T&T). If at the beginning of the 21st century tourism showed high indicators of development, then in 2020 the T&T sphere approached the limit of survival, according to many experts’ estimates. An effective way to preserve the country’s tourism potential under these conditions is to develop domestic tourism. This research aims to analyse the development indicators of the tourism sector in Ukraine and assess the prospects for the development of the domestic tourist services market based on a correlation and regression model. The article presents an analysis of the main indicators of tourism development in Ukraine. In particular, these are such indicators as the capital investment volume, the dynamics of income from the provision of tourist services, and the total contribution of tourism to GDP. A structural analysis of the dynamics of tourist flows in Ukraine for 2013-2019 has been carried out. A significant advantage of outbound tourism in comparison with domestic tourism has been revealed. A regression model has been constructed. This model reflects the relationship between the number of domestic tourists and such factor characteristics as: transport passenger turnover, average salary level and the number of travel agencies. The inverse relationship between the dynamics of the number of domestic tourists and the number of travel agencies was revealed. It was concluded that it would be advisable for the state to encourage small forms of management in the tourism industry, which are focused on creating tourist products of local significance. A direct relationship between the average salary, passenger traffic and the number of domestic tourists was proved. The calculated forecast indicates the possibility of increasing the number of domestic tourists in Ukraine in 2020 by 6%, in 2021 by 6%, in 2022 by 5%.
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