Abstract
The opinions regarding the impact of the domestic league's competitive balance (CB) on continental club competition sporting success are divided. Through the data of the last 18 seasons (2004/05–2021/22) and 576 games, we have examined whether the teams from a more balanced domestic league can achieve more unexpected results in the Champions League group stage. The current study aims to contribute to previously published literature by applying the market value-based surprise index. The results of panel logistic regression models suggest that a lower domestic league's CB in a given season can support teams to overperform in the international field in the same season.
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