Does Time of Voting Affect Exit Poll Results?

Abstract

This study analyzes time of voting effects on the results of exit poll data collected in a Cleveland municipal tax referendum. The data reveal significant differences both in the times different groups vote and in the reported levels of support for the tax levy time of day. The temporal variation in the reported levels of support for the tax levy are then shown to be directly related to the times when different support groups cast their ballots. Collectively, these findings suggest the need for day-long interviewing in the design of exit polls. Ronald J. Busch and Joel A. Lieske are Associate Professors in the Department of Political Science, Cleveland State University. Public Opinion Quarterly Vol 49 94-1104 ?) the Trustees of Columbia University Published Elsevier Science Publishing Co, Inc 0033-362X/85/0049-94/$2 50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.78 on Sun, 19 Jun 2016 05:45:37 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms TIME OF VOTING AND EXIT POLLS 95 polling organizations to project and analyze American elections both allows and now requires a systematic reexamination of this issue.2 In a post-1980 election interview, George Gallup suggested (Sanoff, 1981:32) that by using exit polls, it would be fairly simple to call the national election 11:00 A.M. on election day except in the very closest election. To the contrary, our analysis of the time of voting will demonstrate the risk of considerable sampling bias, especially when interviewing is confined to a threeor four-hour period on election day. Moreover, our results will show that these temporal sampling effects can be largely explained the differences in times when different types of voters cast their ballots.