Abstract

Context.Predictions of solar cycle 24 obtained from advection-dominated and diffusion-dominated kinematic dynamo models are different if the Babcock–Leighton mechanism is the only source of the poloidal field. Some previous studies argue that the discrepancy arises due to different memories of the solar dynamo for advection- and diffusion-dominated solar convection zones.Aims.We aim to investigate the differences in solar cycle memory obtained from advection-dominated and diffusion-dominated kinematic solar dynamo models. Specifically, we explore whether inclusion of Parker’s mean-fieldαeffect, in addition to the Babcock–Leighton mechanism, has any impact on the memory of the solar cycle.Methods.We used a kinematic flux transport solar dynamo model where poloidal field generation takes place due to both the Babcock–Leighton mechanism and the mean-fieldαeffect. We additionally considered stochastic fluctuations in this model and explored cycle-to-cycle correlations between the polar field at minima and toroidal field at cycle maxima.Results.Solar dynamo memory is always limited to only one cycle in diffusion-dominated dynamo regimes while in advection-dominated regimes the memory is distributed over a few solar cycles. However, the addition of a mean-fieldαeffect reduces the memory of the solar dynamo to within one cycle in the advection-dominated dynamo regime when there are no fluctuations in the mean-fieldαeffect. When fluctuations are introduced in the mean-field poloidal source a more complex scenario is evident, with very weak but significant correlations emerging across a few cycles.Conclusions.Our results imply that inclusion of a mean-fieldαeffect in the framework of a flux transport Babcock–Leighton dynamo model leads to additional complexities that may impact memory and predictability of predictive dynamo models of the solar cycle.

Highlights

  • The magnetic field of the Sun is responsible for most of the dynamical features in the solar atmosphere

  • Our current understanding of the solar cycle suggests that sunspots originate from the buoyant emergence of toroidal flux tubes which are generated via the dynamo mechanism inside the solar interior

  • Dynamo models based on the Babcock–Leighton mechanism have been successful in explaining different observational aspects regarding solar activity

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Summary

Introduction

The magnetic field of the Sun is responsible for most of the dynamical features in the solar atmosphere. When the Sun reaches the peak of its activity cycle, there are a large number of flares and coronal mass ejections, which can affect vulnerable infrastructures of our modern society (Schrijver et al 2015) These important issues highlight the need for solar activity predictions, which will enable us to mitigate the impact of our star’s active behaviour (Hathaway 2009; Petrovay 2010). Two different proposals exist in the literature for the poloidal field generation–one involves the decay and dispersal of bipolar magnetic regions at the solar surface, termed as the Babcock–Leighton mechanism (Babcock 1961; Leighton 1969) and the other evokes strong helical turbulence inside the solar convection zone, known as the mean-field α effect (Parker 1955; Steenbeck et al 1966). Dynamo models based on the Babcock–Leighton mechanism have been successful in explaining different observational aspects regarding solar activity

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