Abstract
Temperatures changes can be difficult to infer from changes in vegetation patterns or other ecological changes, yet warming can be inferred through changes in the habits of people who live in close connection with their natural environment. Herders near the Khangai Mountains of central Mongolia have perceived a warming trend in recent years. Since it is difficult to determine the exact time period over which perceived warming has occurred, we examined the statistical difference in changes based on the length of data and the specific period of record used in the analysis. We used temperature data from five meteorological stations for up to 50 years (1961-2010). We examined varying lengths of record from 15 to 50 years with varying start periods (1961 through 1986), based on the length of record. We found that the most statistically significant changes occurred for the longest time periods and for the annual average minimum temperatures. We also found that one very cold winter, in particular 2009-2010 decreased the warming trend and for shorter periods of record reduced the statistical significance.
Highlights
Mongolia is a country known for its vast rangelands
It is more difficult to quantify changes in temperature. Temperature changes, such as warming through an increase in minimum temperatures, can be inferred through changes in the habits of people who live in close connection with their natural environment (Alexander et al, 2011)
The most significant trends were for the daily minimum temperatures (Table 1)
Summary
Mongolia is a country known for its vast rangelands. Over 83% of the country is dominated by this type of land cover/use (Angerer et al, 2008). Recent threats to rangeland health include changes in the traditional nomadic use and management of pastureland, increasing pressure from changes in livestock numbers and composition of herds, and desertification (Angerer et al, 2008; Dagvadorj, 2010). Yu et al, 2003; Angerer et al, 2008); plant production has been limited by temperature and water supply changes (Yu et al, 2003) These changes are critical in mountain steppe areas which provide highly productive forage for grazing livestock and a source of water supply for more arid desert steppe rangelands downstream (Angerer et al, 2008; Fassnacht et al, 2011)
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