Abstract
A suggestion of multiplying the standard deviation () used in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas’ (ERCOT) Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC) loss of load probability (LOLP) by a factor greater than 1.0 has been posited to solve the “missing money argument.” After the fact justification for this position has been given by the rational assumption that the increase in intermittent generation in ERCOT (mostly wind) has increased the LOLP but has not resulted in a corresponding increase in the standard deviation used in the equation. No supporting data has been provided for this rational hypothesis. This paper provides some supporting data of increased intermittency and provides an analysis (with assumptions) of the data to estimate the factor (calculated to be 1.02 to no more than 1.08) to be applied to the standard deviation to account for the increase in intermittent generation in ERCOT. Other less controversial methods of eliminating this perceived shortcoming of the ERCOT LOLP are also discussed.
Published Version
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