Does the global natural gas market have a future?

Abstract

The article presents an analysis of the current state and forecasts of the long-term development of the global natural gas market. Regional and sectoral aspects of gas production and consumption are considered. Particular attention in the article is paid to the priorities for the development of the gas industry in East and South Asia. Increased demand for gas will be driven by higher electricity consumption. In developing Asian countries, industrial gas consumption is expected to grow rapidly until 2050 in parallel with the development of the respective industries. By the end of this period, demand in these countries, according to long-term energy projections (by IHS Markit), will have grown 2.0 times to 1277.8 bln cubic meters. The environmental benefi ts of natural gas will support, but not determine, its role in individual markets, because the price of gas in power generation will primarily determine its prospects. In times of economic slowdown, an imbalance of supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market leads to its destabilisation. In order to predict such situations in advance, experts from international and Russian organisations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consultancy companies (IHS Markit) periodically prepare papers on the evolution of global energy markets and the implications for Russia. Virtually all studies are not yet ready to name a period of peak gas demand in the foreseeable future, even for the world’s largest economies (with the exception of the European Union and developed Asian countries), which gives reason to call the 21st century a gas century.