Does Social Isolation Really Curb COVID-19 Deaths? Direct Evidence from Brazil that it Might do the Exact Opposite

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the association between social isolation, defined as the percentage of individuals who stayed within 450 meters from their usual location or dwelling on a given day, and future COVID-19 deaths in Brazil.Design: Population study with the observation of both the progression of social isolation and of COVID-19 deaths over time.Setting: The country of Brazil from 02/01/2020 through 07/22/2020, according to the official epidemiological reports from the Brazilian Ministry of Health regarding the total number of COVID-19 deaths occurring on a given day and to the In Loco© consumer geo-tracking and advertising company regarding social isolation as estimated from mobile phone location data of over 60 million Brazilians. Restrictive measures were first announced in the country in March 13-16th of 2020. Participants: The 82,241 Brazilians who died from COVID-19 between 03/12/2020 and 07/22/2020 and the over 60 million Brazilian cell phone users whose mobile devices used at least one of the over 600 applications that have incorporated the In Loco© API. Main Outcome Measure: The number of individuals who died from COVID-19 on a given day (actual date of death, not of reporting). Results: The degree of social isolation at a given date showed a strong positive correlation to COVID-19 deaths 39 days later (Spearman Rho=.85, pConclusions: There appears to be strong empirical evidence that, in Brazil, the adoption of restrictive measures increasing social isolation have worsened the pandemic in that country instead of mitigating it, likely as a higher-order effect emerging from a combination of factors.