Physical Distancing and Future COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil: Evidence of a Paradoxical Effect

Abstract

Background: Physical distancing is touted worldwide as the best strategy to curb the progression of the current COVID-19 pandemic, yet, its efficacy has never been direct or adequately assessed. Thus, the present study sought to investigate the relationship between physical distancing and the number of future COVID-19 deaths in Brazil.Methods: The percentage of individuals who stayed within 450 meters from their residence on a given day based on mobile phone location data (Social Isolation Index) and the number of hours a day that individuals spent in their residence were both obtained from public databases provided by private companies (respectively, In Loco© and Google©). The number of COVID-19 deaths that occurred each day was obtained through official public reports from the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Statistical analysis was performed to identify how levels of physical distancing related to the number of COVID-19 deaths 01 to 51 days later. A comparison was also made between the observed number of deaths and extrapolations, based on the SIR model, from before the implementation of restrictive measures to increase physical distancing.Results: The degree of physical distancing at a given date showed a strong positive Spearman correlation to the number of COVID-19 deaths 40 days later (Rho=.75, pConclusions: There is compelling evidence that government-enforced physical distancing in Brazil has increased the number of COVID-19 deaths in that country rather than reducing it. Though further studies are still necessary, it is paramount to immediately question the use of societal restrictive measures as a means to curb the progression of the current pandemic.