Does Human Smuggling Converge with Other Transnational Crimes in North Africa and the Mediterranean Area?

Abstract

This study investigates the convergence between human smuggling and other transnational crimes (i.e., trafficking of drugs, tobacco, weapons, wildlife, cultural artifacts, fake medicines, fuel) in North Africa and the Mediterranean Area. Although the available literature posits that there is a convergence between these different forms of illegal trade, the evidence to support this is scant and largely anecdotal, in part, due to the paucity of data. This research adopts an innovative methodology that is capable of gathering information on a multitude of human smuggling events, by virtue of carrying out a text mining exercise on online news and press releases published in English, French and Arabic during the period January 2011–December 2019. This methodology allows for the identification of whether, and if so to what extent, there is a convergence between human smuggling and the specific types of transnational crimes considered in this study. The results provide a preliminary indication that a marginal and episodic convergence exists, but the intensity of this convergence varies over time and according to illicit markets. The most recurrent convergence is between human smuggling and drug trafficking, while other relevant forms of convergence relate to trafficking of weapons, tobacco, fuel and wildlife. An ancillary content analysis of the news articles also indicates that there is a potential convergence in terms of routes, tactics and offenders. An exploratory analysis of the relationship between the observed convergence and law enforcement operations in the Mediterranean Area does not allow for the drawing of meaningful conclusions regarding the impact of law enforcement actions on this convergence. All the results have implications for both academic research and policy, insofar as they expand extant knowledge and provide policymakers with concrete insights into how to combat different transnational crimes.KeywordsCrime convergenceIllicit marketsLaw enforcementOpen-source analysisText mining