Does Government Performance Really Matter? An Event History Analysis of the Promotion of Provincial Leaders in China

Abstract

What determine Chinese party and state cadres’ promotion? Does government performance matter? Using a unique data-set on the promotion and performance of provincial party secretaries and governors (N=303) in China (2000-2004), we apply event history analysis (EHA) methods to empirically analyze the relationships between distinctive dimensions of government performance and political promotions of local cadres. Contrary to previous studies, it’s found that the whole government performance has weak effects on promotion of provincial cadres. Though the effects of economic performance are not significant, public service effectiveness impacts political promotion positively and significantly. The results imply that the criteria of government performance evaluation are dynamic and undertaken restructuring, and the era of post-GDP government performance evaluation may have been coming. The position, tenure and guanxi (social capital) of provincial cadres and their jurisdictional attributes have significantly effects on political promotion, similar to former research. Comparative analysis among different positions and areas are also conducted and discussed, and research and practical implications are concluded.