Does EU ETS instigate Air Cargo network reconfiguration? A model-based analysis

Abstract

From 2012 on aviation is included in the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and operators have to hold one allowance per tonne of CO2 emitted on every flight departing from and/or arriving at an airport within the EU. Now two questions are of interest: Is it profitable for airlines to reconfigure their routes to reduce EU-related emissions and costs, and, will the scheme be successful in the sense that emissions are reduced significantly. Here the potential for and the consequences of reconfiguration are different for the passenger and cargo business, respectively. In this paper we present a model-based evaluation of network (re-)configuration/optimization at cargo airlines under different EU ETS scenarios and we discuss the results with respect to the two issues raised above.