Does Compulsory Voting Distort Electoral Outcomes?

Abstract

I S compulsory voting ‘the great guarantee of truly democratic elections’ that Neville Wran (1997:1) believes it is, or should the obligation to vote be converted into a right to vote or not to vote? This challenge is now upon the electorate following the recommendation by the Parliamentary Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (1997:xx) that Section 245 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act, which provides for compulsory voting, be repealed. Australians do in fact have the right not to vote, but few know it. A voter is not obliged to cast a vote by marking the ballot paper, and can comply with the law merely by returning the ballot to the ballot box. Although this latter claim is open to debate (Twomey, 1996:209), the secret ballot makes detection of an unmarked ballot difficult, if not illegal, and thus ensures that voters need not vote. However, the advertising accompanying the election for the Commonwealth parliament, and the emphasis on making a formal vote, give voters the strong impression that it is compulsory to vote. Indeed, more than 95 per cent of Australians do vote on a regular basis, and have been doing so since the 1925 election (Parliamentary Research Service, 1994/95:85). The cost to the individual of compulsory voting is small, certainly when compared with, for example, that of compulsory jury service. There appear to be few signs of civil disobedience associated with compulsion; and compulsory voting appears to be popular: 74 per cent of all candidates at the 1996 Commonwealth election favoured compulsion (Jones et al., 1996:40), as did 70 per cent of the electorate (Mackerras & McAllister, 1996:Figure 1). Debate about compulsory voting tends to concentrate on the moral issue of whether voting should be obligatory (Jones, 1996) or a right that one may choose not to exercise (Minchin, 1996). Yet both supporters and opponents of compulsory voting are also concerned about a number of issues that are open to empirical and theoretical investigation. They are concerned about three issues in particular: the level of voter turnout; any bias in the vote associated with a given turnout; and any impairment directly associated with either compulsory or voluntary voting. This note explores these issues and tries to come to some conclusions about them.