Does China's increasing coupling of ‘urban population’ and ‘urban area’ growth indicators reflect a growing social and economic sustainability?

Abstract

Over the last four decades, China has experienced rapid parallel economic development and urbanization, leading to internal mass -migrations of its people from increasingly marginalized rural areas to urban centers where job opportunities and wealth are now concentrated. We compare the relative temporal growth trends in population-related and land-(i.e., area-) related urbanization systems to evaluate China's urbanization in the context of the ‘New-Type’ Urbanization Program (2014–2020). Based on coupling coordination models, we observed that the two systems were overall slightly decoupled since spatial urban expansion commonly outgrew urban population growth, but the degree of coordination between the two parameters was increasing. Employing exploratory spatial data analysis, we revealed that a high degree of coupling coordination has spread from Eastern to Western provinces. Urban planning and land policies have contributed to an increasing urban vegetation cover and the control of excessive urban land expansions. While China's urbanization appears to have become increasingly sustainable due to the increasing degree of coupling coordination between its subsystems, ongoing urban expansions require strong oversight to limit the environmental impacts of the country's sprawling mega-cities.