Characteristics of spatiotemporal variations in coupling coordination between integrated carbon emission and sequestration index: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta, China

Abstract

• Analyzes the degree of coupling coordination between integrated carbon emissions and sequestration. • Analyzes the coercive effect of economic development on the degree of coupling and coordination. • Analyzes the restraint effect of ecological environment on the degree of coupling and coordination. • Analyzes the effects of regional government decision-making priority with different development characteristics. To explore the degree of coupling coordination between carbon emissions and sequestration, a theoretical analysis framework of integrated carbon emission and sequestration index was constructed, and an evaluation index system was constructed based on the economic development, population growth, energy emissions, land use and other indicators. Then, a comprehensive index method and a coupling coordination degree model were used to analyze the characteristics of spatiotemporal variation in the degree of coupling coordination between economic development carbon emissions and ecological environment quality in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from 2005 to 2017. A grey relational degree model was used to identify driving factors, and the influence of governmental decision-making priorities on the degree of coupling coordination was simulated. The results showed that: (1) the total carbon emissions of the YRD are still increasing, and vegetation carbon sequestration is stable. Before 2003, carbon emissions and absorption were basically in balance, but they gradually became unbalanced after 2003. (2) The degree of coupling coordination between economic development carbon emissions and ecological environment quality in the YRD is in a period of turning and rising, and the number of high-quality development cities is also increasing, but the entire region remains in the slightly unbalanced stage of coupling coordination. (3) The coordination degree is closely related to the quality of the ecological environment, and areas with higher ecological environmental evaluation scores have higher coordination degrees. The degree of population spatial agglomeration, quality of economic development and efficiency of land use are the main factors that affect the ecological environment. The maintenance of ecological service functions and proportion of expenditures for environmental protection have an increasing impact on the quality of economic development. (4) Governmental decision-making priorities currently significantly affect the coupling coordination trends; the environmental restraint of economic development is increasingly strengthened, and it is necessary to pay more attention to the improvement of environmental quality while improving the quality of economic development. To a certain extent, this research may provide a reference for policy makers in creating sustainable development policies.