Does carbon reduction and sequestration conflict with food security in rural China?—What, why and how?

Abstract

Based on panel data of 31 provinces in rural China from 1997 to 2020, this manuscript first applies a carbon reduction and sequestration (CRS) model from the perspective of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural carbon sinks. We then construct a food security evaluation system to examine the four dimensions of quantity, quality, ecological and economic security. Finally, the study uses a spatial Durbin model to empirically analyze the impact of CRS on food security and the moderating effect of fiscal decentralization. The relevant results: First, from 1997 to 2020, carbon emissions rose from 221.9794 million tons (1997) to 251.1368 million tons (2020), representing an increase of 13.14 %. The total amount of carbon sinks increased from 518.259 million tons (1997) to 758.887 million tons (2020); an increase of 46.43 %. CRS exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, falling from 0.98 (1997) to 0.90 (2020). However, food security showed an increasing trend, rising 0.12 (1997) to 0.32 (2020), with an average annual growth rate of 6.94 %. Second, in the short term, national CRS has had a significantly negative impact on food security, whereas the long term the result is exactly the opposite. In terms of control variables, planting structure, openness to the world, and economic development have significantly positive impact on food security, and urbanization, technological progress, and environmental regulation have significantly negative impact on food security. Regional heterogeneity is evident in the three functional attribute areas. Third, fiscal decentralization can enhance the negative impact of CRS on food security in the short term and weaken the positive impact of CRS on food security in the long term. Similarly, some regional heterogeneity is found among different regions.