Does asylum seeker immigration increase support for the far right? Evidence from the United Kingdom, 2000–2015

Abstract

ABSTRACT What effect does the influx of asylum seekers have on the electoral support of the far right? This paper answers this question by examining changes in support for far right parties in response to the British government's relocation of asylum seekers across the United Kingdom from 2000 to 2015. Relying primarily on a difference-in-differences (DD) empirical strategy, our main finding is that an increase in the number of asylum seekers dispersed to a local authority is associated with an increase in the vote share of parties of the far right. Further tests indicate that the effect is due both to the far right contesting more seats in those localities receiving asylum seekers and to higher levels of support it receives in those areas where it is present. We find the effect is non-linear, that it is mitigated by higher recipient area ethnic diversity, and that it is limited to the most extreme right-wing parties.