Doctrine «deterrence by denial» in modern diplomacy

Abstract

The security environment today is more complex and demanding than at any time since the end of the cold war, which increases the need for States and their coalitions to ensure the reliability and effectiveness of deterrence and defense policies. The issue of deterrence is becoming central to the national security policies of the great Powers, and deterrence strategies are becoming a prominent component of foreign policy and diplomacy in a multipolar world. At the same time, the effectiveness of traditional methods of deterrence through punishment decreases, while the importance of the doctrines of coercion and deterrence through denial increases, which play an increasing role as tools of hybrid war as a new form of interstate confrontation and naturally complement strategic nuclear and non-nuclear deterrence with high-precision weapons in conventional equipment. In conditions of limited scale of military operations, the doctrine of deterrence by punishment quickly turns into coercion, when it is necessary not only to "dissuade" the aggressor, but also to oust him and force him to retreat from the accomplished limited, hidden conquest. Against the background of the decline in the possibilities of deterrence by punishment, the doctrine of "Deterrence by denial", designed to create physical obstacles to the enemy, to make it difficult for him to achieve his goal, is gaining more and more development in politics and diplomacy. The effectiveness of this form of deterrence depends on the fear associated with the costs that will be incurred by the enemy during the act of aggression in the place where it will occur. Deterrence by negation is designed to make aggression unprofitable, make it harder to capture a target, and make it harder to hold it. The transformation of deterrence doctrines leads to the emergence of new tasks and tactics of modern diplomacy in a rapidly changing world.