Do we need a computed tomography examination in all patients with acute pancreatitis within 72 h after admission to hospital for the detection of pancreatic necrosis?

Abstract

The aim of this prospective study was to define the role of an initial contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) obtained within 72 h after admission to hospital for determining the prognosis of acute pancreatitis and to investigate whether CT scans can be replaced by conventional prognostic parameters. The study involves 231 patients admitted to the Lüneburg clinic with a first attack of acute pancreatitis from 1988 to 1995. In all of them, a contrast-enhanced CT was performed within 72 h of admission and scored according to Balthazar. The results were compared with the Ranson and Imrie laboratory prognostic scores and with parameters of the severity of the disease: the initial organ failure according to the Atlanta classification; days spent on intensive care unit or altogether in hospital; indication for artificial ventilation, dialysis and surgical intervention (necrosectomy); development of pancreatic pseudocysts; and mortality. Although there was a good statistical correlation between Ranson, Imrie, and Balthazar scores with the severity of the disease (P < 0.001 to P = 0.03), low and moderately raised Ranson (0-2, 0-5 points) and Imrie scores (0-1.0-3 points) failed to identify all patients with pancreatic necrosis with sufficient sensitivity rates (31.7; 78.0 and 39.0; 78.0%), positive (32.6; 25.3 and 75.0; 45.0%) and negative (91.0; 87.9 and 85.4; 84.8%) predictive values. A contrast-enhanced CT on admission correlates significantly with the severity of the disease and cannot be replaced by conventional laboratory prognostic scores. The decision to use a CT cannot depend on the results of the Ranson/Imrie scores.