Abstract
<p style="text-indent:0cm; text-align:justify"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,serif">The Chinese industry holds a significant position in the national economy. However, industrial carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions account for a large proportion of the total CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, which has a negative impact on the environment. To identify the factors affecting industrial CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model system is established to empirically test the factors influencing industrial CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, using data on industrial technology innovation (TI), environmental regulation, and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from 2000 to 2023 in China. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between industrial technological innovation, environmental regulation and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Each unit increase in environmental regulation will reduce 2.132 units of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Meanwhile, each unit increase in technological innovation results in a decrease of 0.067 units of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Compared with TI, environmental regulation has a greater impact on CO<sub>2</sub> emission reduction. The effects of the impulses of the stochastic perturbation terms of industrial TI, environmental regulation, and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on the current and future values of industrial TI, environmental regulation, and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the VAR system are de-picted through the VAR impulse response function. The contribution of each new interest shock to the change of industrial TI, environmental regulation and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions is analyzed by variance decomposition. This paper enriches the application of institutional theory and technological in-novation theory in CO<sub>2</sub> emission reduction and also provides a reference for relevant departments to formulate emission reduction policies and industrial technological innovation.</span></span></span></p>
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