Abstract

This article finds no compelling evidence to support Cebula's recent claim that higher structural budget deficits in the United States have raised commercial bank interest rates. It appears that Cebula's results are spurious and likely the outcome of the use of nonstationary data. Correcting for this problem, the results deny the presence of any significant crowding out in the data. This inference stands up to several sensitivity tests and accords well with the body of evidence against the crowding out phenomenon in the U.S. economy.

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