Abstract
We analyze whether various types of speculative investor correctly anticipate future USD/EUR currency movements or whether they tend rather to react to past exchange rate movements. In contrast to earlier studies, we account for the large number of tests conducted by comparing results based on individual significance tests with those based on controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) or the family-wise error rate (FER). While the evidence for speculative positions leading exchange rate movements, and therefore an inefficient EUR currency futures market, largely collapses if we account for multiple testing, such a pattern does not emerge in the other direction.
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