Do new-type urbanisation pilots narrow urban household carbon emission differences between cities? A temporal-spatial within-between decomposition analysis

Abstract

The relationship between urbanisation and carbon emissions has been widely discussed. However, whether new-type urbanisation, which aims to achieve green development, helps reduce urban household carbon emissions (UHC), remains unclear. By expanding the temporal-spatial within-between refined Laspeyres index decomposition model with data from 236 Chinese cities from 2015 to 2021, this study investigated the differences in UHC between pilot and non-pilot cities under the new-type urbanisation pilot policy and further explored the drivers of these differences. The temporal decomposition results highlighted the changes and their drivers in UHC between pilot and non-pilot cities. UHC have increased in both types of cities, with the increase linked to higher urbanisation rates, greater carbon intensity, and rising incomes. However, the energy intensity and the urban-rural income gap effects helped curb the extent of the increase. Although a higher level of UHC existed in the pilot cities, the new-type urbanisation pilot policy helped narrow the gap in UHC between pilot and non-pilot cities, thus curbing UHC. The spatial decomposition results further explored the causes of the UHC gap between pilot and non-pilot cities. The within-between decomposition results suggested that, for pilot cities, those with higher UHC than the pilot-group average should close the gap with the group average, whereas those with lower UHC than the national average should close the gap with the national average. The findings present a useful reference for balancing urbanisation with a low-carbon household sector.