Do natural disaster affect rural labor migration? Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake in China

Abstract

A stable labor supply is pivotal for the economic development of rural areas. However, the response of the rural workforce in developing countries to the natural disasters has received limited attention. This paper examines the causal relationship between severe earthquake shock and rural labor migration, utilizing a unique micro-panel dataset from Sichuan province in China. Using a difference-in-differences model, we find that the earthquake significantly increases rural labor migration, and this effect is primarily manifested in the medium to long term after the disaster. Rural laborers mainly migrated to work within the county, primarily in the construction and manufacturing sector. Furthermore, the majority of these migrating workers are male. Individuals from households with minimal agricultural ties and limited social networks are more vulnerable to the disaster. To mitigate the loss of rural labor due to natural disasters, we provide several recommendations at the end of the paper. These include enhancing the adaptive and coping capacities of farmers, offering them stable demand within the industrial chain, agricultural operational subsidies, and policy-based insurance, as well as promoting the development of cooperative economic organizations in villages.