Abstract
BackgroundLife expectancy at birth in the United States will likely surpass 80 years in the coming decade. Yet recent studies suggest that longevity gains are unevenly shared across age and socioeconomic groups. First, mortality in midlife has risen among non-Hispanic whites. Second, low-educated whites have suffered stalls (men) or declines (women) in adult life expectancy, which is significantly lower than among their college-educated counterparts. Estimating the number of life years lost or gained by age and cause of death, broken down by educational attainment, is crucial in identifying vulnerable populations.Methods and FindingsUsing U.S. vital statistics data from 1990 to 2010, this study decomposes the change in life expectancy at age 25 by age and cause of death across educational attainment groups, broken down by race and gender. The findings reveal that mortality in midlife increased for white women (and to a lesser extent men) with 12 or fewer years of schooling, accounting for most of the stalls or declines in adult life expectancy observed in those groups. Among blacks, mortality declined in nearly all age and educational attainment groups. Although an educational gradient was found across multiple causes of death, between 60 and 80 percent of the gap in adult life expectancy was explained by cardiovascular diseases, smoking-related diseases, and external causes of death. Furthermore, the number of life years lost to smoking-related, external, and other causes of death increased among low- and high school-educated whites, explaining recent stalls or declines in longevity.ConclusionsLarge segments of the American population—particularly low- and high school-educated whites under age 55—are diverging from their college-educated counterparts and losing additional years of life to smoking-related diseases and external causes of death. If this trend continues, old-age mortality may also increase for these birth cohorts in the coming decades.
Highlights
Life expectancy at birth in the United States is currently estimated at 78.7 years for men and women combined—a 31-year increase since 1900—and is projected to surpass 80 years within the decade [1,2]
The findings reveal that mortality in midlife increased for white women with 12 or fewer years of schooling, accounting for most of the stalls or declines in adult life expectancy observed in those groups
Using U.S vital registry data from 1990 to 2010, this study aims to reveal (a) across educational attainment groups, in which age groups gains in life expectancy at age 25 have been most pronounced; (b) which causes of death account for recent gains in adult life expectancy, by educational attainment; and (c) which causes of death account for the widening education gap in adult life expectancy
Summary
Life expectancy at birth in the United States is currently estimated at 78.7 years for men and women combined—a 31-year increase since 1900—and is projected to surpass 80 years within the decade [1,2]. The education gap in adult life expectancy—the difference between those with college education or higher and those with fewer than 12 years of schooling—increased more than threefold among white women (2.5 to 9.3 years) and nearly doubled among white men (6.1 to 11.9 years) between 1990 and 2010 [13]. Taken together, these studies question the presumption that life expectancy will continue to rise for all population groups in the United States or for the country as a whole. Estimating the number of life years lost or gained by age and cause of death, broken down by educational attainment, is crucial in identifying vulnerable populations
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