Distributional effects of a carbon tax on Chinese households: A case of Shanghai

Abstract

As an effective policy instrument to reduce CO2 emissions, the effects of a carbon tax on distribution have been the critical factor in determining whether a carbon tax will be acceptable in China. Taking Shanghai as an example, which is the economic center and front-runner of China, this paper estimates the distributional effect of a carbon tax on households in various income groups by using the input–output model and the Suits index. The results indicate that the comprehensive distributional effect of the carbon tax is regressive. The expenditure of the low-income group caused by the carbon tax accounts for 0.853% of the total expenditure, while that of the high-income group 0.712%. The direct distributional effect presents a weak progressivity, while the indirect one is significantly regressive, and the latter is much larger than the former. Moreover, the Suits index of the carbon tax is −0.078, implying that the carbon tax burden on the low-income group is the highest and thus that a carbon tax can intensify income inequality. Therefore, when introducing a carbon tax, some rational associated redistribution or compensation measures, such as purposive transfer payments, should be implemented to restrict or even eliminate the regressivity of the carbon tax.