Distribution pattern prediction of an invasive alien species largemouth bass using a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) in the Korean peninsula

Abstract

Largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) is one of the world’s most notorious fish species, rapidly invaded in the aquatic ecosystems because of high fecundity and recruitment rate across the world, including South Korea, and is a major threat to native fish biodiversity and ecosystems. Knowledge about invasion range of largemouth bass has immense importance for conservation and management of native fish species. This study was conducted to predict a potential spatial spread in the future for the national-level risk assessments and successful management of largemouth bass in Korea. Using the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model, 1109 streams and rivers of largemouth bass along with 24 climatic environmental variables of Korea were used to predict the future spatial distribution patterns and habitat suitability area. The precision of the MaxEnt model was highly significant, with an area under the curve value of 0.854 and 0.829 in 2050 and 2100, respectively. Overall, our study suggested that the output of MaxEnt model is useful for understanding how climatic variables affect the distribution range of invasive alien fish species and generating a map of potential risk.