Distribution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the National Comprehensive Disaster-Reduction Demonstration Community in China

Abstract

Establishing the National Comprehensive Disaster-Reduction Demonstration Community (NCDDC) is crucial for enhancing comprehensive disaster risk reduction at the grassroots level in China. Studying the distribution characteristics and influencing factors of NCDDCs can guide future NCDDC layout optimization and related policy adjustments. Using the standard deviation ellipse, nearest neighbor index, kernel density, spatial autocorrelation, and Geodetector, we analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of NCDDCs in China from 2008 to 2021 and detected their influencing factors. The findings are as follows: (1) NCDDCs exhibit an uneven distribution at different scales, including spatial, urban–rural, and county scales. (2) The spatial distribution of NCDDCs mainly follows a northwest–southeast pattern during 2008–2014 and shows a northeast–southwest trend after 2014. (3) The positive spatial correlation and spatial agglomeration of NCDDCs increase annually. (4) NCDDCs show a concentrated and contiguous distribution pattern in 2021, based on “core density zone–ring-core decreasing area–ring-core expansion group–Ɔ-shaped area–belt-shaped area”. (5) The main factors affecting the NCDDC distribution are hospital density, road density, GDP density, and population density, with factors’ interactions exhibiting bilinear and nonlinear enhancement effects. This study reveals the NCDDC spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and its influence mechanism, providing a scientific basis for future NCDDC layout optimization and related policy adjustments.