Distribución potencial histórica y contemporánea de la familia Psittacidae en México

Abstract

The historic and contemporary distribution for the Psittacidae family in Mexico using the greatest database assembled until now was estimated. The ecological niche models were generated with the MaxEnt algorithm. Temperature and precipitation were used, as well as an analysis of vegetation and availability of protected areas established until 2015. The models did not present omission errors and allow to have updated estimates for each species. The species with the greatest potential distribution was Amazona albifrons, and Amazona auropalliata had the smallest one. The results indicate that all the species have lost suitable habitat area, especially Ara macao, Amazona auropalliata and A. oratrix. Although tropical forests are present on most species distributions, temperate forests had a high cover percentage for 6 species. The proportion of protected area for each species was higher when compared with previous estimates from the year 2000. The precise estimate of the distribution of Mexican Psittacidae has international conservation implications, as 6 species are endemic and 4 species may present their greater potential distribution in Mexico according to IUCN information. Due to habitat loss some species have a high vulnerability, present and future, making it necessary to examine the relationship between environmental suitability and patterns of population abundance. The use of ecological niche models to evaluate distributional changes associated with climate change may be also necessary.