Disentangling the response of vegetation dynamics to natural and anthropogenic drivers over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau using dimensionality reduction and structural equation model

Abstract

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), also referred to as the “roof of the world”, is a distinct alpine ecosystem located at an average elevation of more than 4000 m. Climate variation and anthropogenic activity have affected vegetation development on the QTP during the past few decades, but it is still debatable how significant a role any of these causes has played. According to land surface air temperature data around the world, during the past 50 years, temperatures on the QTP have risen twice as rapidly as the average global level. Previous studies have employed the residual method to examine the impacts of anthropogenic activities on vegetation development, with a lack of actual data validation and less attention to explaining the complex interactions and pathways between vegetation growth, natural factors (climate change and topography), and anthropogenic drivers. Furthermore, although the relationships between vegetation dynamics and terrain have been addressed, the interactions in which meteorological factors influence vegetation growth in accordance with topographical variations remain inadequately elucidated. The raster datasets employed in this study include MODIS NDVI, meteorology, topography, as well as anthropogenic activity from 2000 to 2018. A suite of methods including partial correlation coefficient (PCC), principal component analysis (PCA), and partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) were applied to explore the interrelationships between various influencing factors and regional vegetation development over the past two decades. The results suggested that: (1) an elevation-specific temperature threshold existed, indicating that temperature could promote or inhibit vegetation growth depending on whether it is below or above this threshold, respectively, which was controlled by a trendline equation; (2) the PLS-SEM and PCA results showed that vegetation development was dominantly promoted by temperature and was most sensitive to precipitation; (3) topography, especially elevation, affected vegetation growth indirectly by influencing climatic change, while anthropogenic drivers had positively contributed to vegetation dynamics on the QTP under the influence of implementing ecological management such as the nature reserves establishment.