Discrete stochastic autoregressive volatility

Abstract

We use Markov chain methods to develop a flexible class of discrete stochastic autoregressive volatility (DSARV) models. Our approach to formulating the models is straightforward, and readily accommodates features such as volatility asymmetry and time-varying volatility persistence. Moreover, it produces models with a low-dimensional state space, which greatly enhances computational tractability. We illustrate the proposed methodology for both individual stock and stock index returns, and show that simple first- and second-order DSARV models outperform generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and Markov-switching multifractal models in forecasting volatility.