Abstract

We present evidence that equity momentum strategies are partially driven by positive-feedback trading intermediated via the mutual fund sector. We identify a U.S.-specific structural break to this channel that substantially weakened the relationship between fund flows and past style returns. As a result, trading strategies that load on flow-driven positive-feedback trading (including momentum in stocks, styles, and factors) experienced a profitability decline. Consistent with the proposed channel, the profitability decline was limited to the U.S. market. Moreover, factors that were more directly exposed to the structural break experienced a sharp return “kink” in the months after the event.

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