Abstract

We present evidence that equity momentum strategies are partially driven by positive-feedback trading intermediated via the mutual fund sector. We identify a U.S.-specific structural break to this channel that substantially weakened the relationship between fund flows and past style returns. As a result, trading strategies that load on flow-driven positive-feedback trading (including momentum in stocks, styles, and factors) experienced a profitability decline. Consistent with the proposed channel, the profitability decline was limited to the U.S. market. Moreover, factors that were more directly exposed to the structural break experienced a sharp return “kink” in the months after the event. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

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