Discharge prediction for rectangular sharp-crested weirs by machine learning techniques

Abstract

The stage-discharge relationship of a weir is essential for posteriori calculations of flow discharges. Conventionally, it is determined by regression methods, which is time-consuming and may subject to limited prediction accuracy. To provide a better estimate, the machine learning models, artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and extreme learning machine (ELM), are assessed for the prediction of discharges of rectangular sharp-crested weirs. A large number of experimental data sets are adopted to develop and calibrate these models. Different input scenarios and data management strategies are employed to optimize the models, for which performance is evaluated in the light of statistical criteria. The results show that all three models are capable of predicting the discharge coefficient with high accuracy, but the SVM exhibits somewhat better performance. Its maximum and mean relative error are respectively 5.44 and 0.99%, and 99% of the predicted data show an error below 5%. The coefficient of determination and root mean square error are 0.95 and 0.01, respectively. The model sensitivity is examined, indicative of the dominant roles of weir Reynolds number and contraction ratio in discharge estimation. The existing empirical formulas are assessed and compared against the machine learning models. It is found that the relationship proposed by Vatankhah exhibits the highest accuracy. However, it is still less accurate than the machine learning approaches. The study is intended to provide reference for discharge determination of overflow structures including spillways.