Abstract
John L. Schellenberg has suggested that the evolution of religion should be guided towards the goal of discovering the truth about transcendent reality. I argue that some way of discerning progress is needed if this project is to be practically feasible. In this article, I explore what discernible progress would require in some possible future scenarios. Focus lies on scenarios involving improved cognitive contact with the transcendent, but I also consider scenarios involving only cultural change and those where no transcendent reality exists. I conclude that whether progress can be discerned varies heavily between different versions of these scenarios and therefore suggest that humanity is currently too ignorant to begin this project.
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