Disaster-risk, climate change challenges and strategies in small islands in Bird’s Head Papua

Abstract

A Disaster Risk Index analysis has never been conducted on small islands in Indonesia, particularly in the Bird's Head region of Papua, which includes 4,110 small islands that are now vulnerable and have become hotspots for climate change and hydrometeorological disasters. This study explores disaster risk indices, future climate change challenges, and Disaster Risk Reduction plans and policies at the site level on the small island of Bird's Head in Papua. Disaster risk index analysis includes threat, vulnerability, and capacity indexes. Climate change scenarios are derived from CMIP, using scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Strategy and policy are based on the National Disaster Management Agency's seven priorities. Field measurements demonstrate that the Disaster Risk Index ranges from 0.73 to 0.82, including the high index class category, which is also directly related to the Hazard Index and Vulnerability Index and inversely proportional to the Capacity Index. Extreme rainfall estimates in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios result in a 10% and 20% increase in rainfall in the Papua Birds Head region, respectively. The assessment of the seven priorities for tiny islands ranges from 0.2 to 0.37 in the low category. As a result, it is critical for stakeholders, particularly local communities and traditional and village officials, to actively participate in developing DRR strategies and policy ideas for small islands.