Direction of Pigeon Pea Exports from Myanmar- An Application of Markov Chain Model

Abstract

Background: Pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan L.) is the third most important pulse crop of Myanmar. The country was the largest exporter of pigeon pea in south and south-east Asia, accounting for 90 per cent of the overall global export volume. This study focuses to figure out the trend and direction of pigeon pea export from Myanmar. Methods: This work is based on secondary data and export figures for 10 years were gathered from the Ministry of Commerce and Trade Map. Markov chain model was adopted as an analytical tool to study the direction of pigeon pea trade and a compound annual growth rate was employed to investigate the trend in Myanmar’s pigeon pea export for 10 years. Result: The growth rate of pigeon pea export registered a negative CAGR but was not statistically significant at 5 per cent level of significance. Markov chain analysis of pigeon pea export from Myanmar showed that besides India, Singapore was further a reliable market as revealed through retention probabilities (0.96 and 0.60, correspondingly), while China, UAE, Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries were highly unstable markets for Myanmar pigeon pea.